Partisanship and Support for Propositions on the Ballot: A State‐Level Longitudinal Study

Objective. Previous studies suggest that there is reason to believe that changes in the partisan composition of a state's electorate will be associated with changes in the level of support for certain types of propositions on the ballot. Scholars, however, differ over the reasons for this relationship. Some have suggested the importance of party differences over substantive issues. Others have indicated the importance of differences among partisans in their willingness to defer to legislative judgments or recommendations. Still others have pointed to the importance of partisan cue taking; for example, that Republicans are more likely to vote for propositions put on the ballot by Republican legislatures and Democrats are likely to oppose such measures. We test these rival hypotheses. Methods. Using multivariate analysis and time series techniques, we examine voting patterns on 361 propositions submitted to voters in Arizona from 1912 to 1996. Results. We find that increases in the Republican vote were significantly linked to increase in support for measures submitted by state legislatures, particularly legislatures controlled by Republicans. Conclusions. The findings give some support to deference theory and to the notion that a subtle process of partisan cue taking may be involved in proposition voting.