Exposure to Crime and Perceptions of Crime in Major U.S. Cities

Objective Address three questions: (1) To what extent are direct victimization and contextual exposure to crime related to people's perceptions of crime in their neighborhoods? (2) Does the type of crime matter? (3) Do the effects of exposure to in one place “spillover” to evaluations of other areas? Methods We leverage data from surveys of residents of large US cities that asked respondents how safe they feel in their neighborhood and about their perceptions regarding how crime in their neighborhood compares to rates elsewhere. We also asked respondents about their victimization experiences and paired respondents with data on crime rates in their Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA). We estimate multiple regression models to estimate the relationships between our measures of crime exposure and each of our outcomes. Results Both victimization and local crime rates predict crime perceptions, though the relationships are arguably modest in magnitude. We find some evidence that instances of violent victimization are particularly closely connected to subjective feelings of safety, but all types of victimization predict more objective assessments of crime rates. Our evidence also suggests that the effects of exposure to crime in a given geographic area do not “spillover” and shape perceptions about crime and safety in other areas. Conclusion Our findings corroborate and extend findings from existing work, shedding new light on the relationship between exposure to crime and both subjective feelings of safety and more objective assessments regarding how crime rates in one's neighborhood compare to rates elsewhere.