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Can Donald Trump Shape the Outcome of Elections Abroad? Unraveling and Comparing the “Trump Effect” in the 2025 Canadian and Australian Federal Elections

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  • Jean‐Nicolas Bordeleau
  • Rodrigo Praino
  • Daniel Stockemer

Abstract

Objective This research investigates the salience of Donald Trump as a political issue and determinant of vote choice in the 2025 Canadian and Australian federal elections. Both countries held federal contests within 5 days of each other, and multiple news outlets and experts labeled them “anti‐Trump” elections. While center‐left incumbents secured upset re‐election wins in both countries, the actual importance of Donald Trump in shaping these outcomes warrants empirical examination. Methods We use original survey data collected in the aftermath of the two elections (N = 1008) to assess how the salience of Donald Trump is related to vote choice in each country. Results We find that the salience of Donald Trump was linked to vote choice in both Canada and Australia, but the association was stronger in Canada. Conclusion Although both elections were widely framed as “anti‐Trump” contests, the role of Trump as a factor in vote choice varied across the two cases, suggesting that this characterization applies more readily to Canada than to Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean‐Nicolas Bordeleau & Rodrigo Praino & Daniel Stockemer, 2026. "Can Donald Trump Shape the Outcome of Elections Abroad? Unraveling and Comparing the “Trump Effect” in the 2025 Canadian and Australian Federal Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 107(3), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:107:y:2026:i:3:n:e70157
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.70157
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