Heterogeneity in Public Understanding of the Causes of Inflation in the United Kingdom and the United States

Objectives In this paper, we examine heterogeneity in popular perceptions of inflation in the United Kingdom and the United States. We examine heterogeneity both in terms of perceptions of the rate of inflation and, also, in perceptions of the causes of inflation. Methods We analyze opinion data from the United Kingdom (2023) and the United States (2024), which examines perceptions of the rate of inflation and its causes. Results In contrast to what might be expected given the rise in affective partisanship, we find that individual circumstances have a larger effect on driving perceptions of the rate of inflation than partisanship in both countries. Perceptions of inflation rate vary strongly and consistently by one's income: less well‐off voters in both countries see inflation as being much higher than do the better‐off. Over and above this pattern in perceptions, we also see that different voters hold different understandings of what is causing inflation. Heterogeneity in how voters understand how the economy works is distinct from that found in the literature to date. Conclusions Voters differ a great deal over what they believe to be the causes of inflation and see strong effects of ideological leanings. One implication of this finding of heterogeneity is that “one size fits all” communication strategies by parties or government, which focus on aggregate levels of inflation, are only likely to appeal to a subset of the population.