The Politics of (Mis)perception: Understanding Americans’ Beliefs About Immigrant Welfare Usage

Background Public concerns about immigrants' use of welfare programs have long influenced U.S. immigration and social policy. During the Trump administration, claims that immigrants exploit the American welfare system became central to the political agenda, amplifying perceptions that immigrants are economic burdens. These perceptions, whether grounded in reality or not, can shape public support for both immigration and the welfare state. Aims Few studies have systematically examined how closely Americans' perceptions of immigrants' welfare usage align with actual usage patterns, and how individual and contextual factors moderate this relationship. In this study we explore these connections. Materials and Methods We use original national survey data merged with state‐level data on immigrant welfare usage to investigate the extent to which Americans' beliefs reflect the realities of local immigrant welfare usage. Results We show a significant–albeit modest–association between the objective rate of immigrant participation in welfare programs and individuals' subjective perceptions. However, this effect is not uniform: it is strongest among individuals who are more engaged in politics, though moderating effects of political ideology and education are mixed. Discussion and Conclusion These findings contribute to our understanding of the conditions under which factual context influences perceptions and belief formation in a polarized political environment. They also contribute to the growing literature on immigrants' fiscal impact, as well as the literature on immigration attitudes.