Economic Vulnerability, Cultural Decline, and Nativism: Contingent and Indirect Effects

Objective Nativism, or anti‐immigrant preferences, is increasingly evident within democratic mass publics. In this article, we explore whether economic concerns, perceptions of social decline, or some combination of the two shape these attitudes. Method Our data are comprised of more than 8,000 survey respondents from nine Western, industrial democracies (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United States). Using mediation analysis, we test for the extent to which economic anxiety and perceptions of cultural decline exert direct and indirect effects on nativism. Results On balance, the effect of economic anxiety—concern regarding job loss and negative economic assessments—on nativism is mostly indirect, affecting nativism by influencing perceptions of cultural decline. Conclusion Given the strong association between perceptions of social decline and nativism, it appears as though anti‐immigrant sentiments draw from cultural rather than economic concerns. The story, however, does not end there. Perceptions of societal decline are strongly influenced by economic anxiety.