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Consensus, Diversity and the Wisdom of the Crowd: Predicting Final Rank Positions of the English Premier League

Author

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  • David O. Allen
  • Don J. Webber

Abstract

This study assesses the Wisdom of the Crowd premise using a natural experiment. We collected primary data relating to predictions of the final football club rank positions in the English Premier League over two consecutive seasons using an innovative game and compared these predictions with predictions made by sporting pundits, football blogs and inferred from betting odds. Our results question the Wisdom of the Crowd premise, and we show that scores generated by the Diversity Prediction Theorem vary from one season to the next, suggesting that crowds are not adept at predicting the unexpected.

Suggested Citation

  • David O. Allen & Don J. Webber, 2025. "Consensus, Diversity and the Wisdom of the Crowd: Predicting Final Rank Positions of the English Premier League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 72(4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:72:y:2025:i:4:n:e70005
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.70005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Paul Madden & Terry Robinson, 2012. "Supporter Influence on Club Governance in a Sports League; a “Utility Maximization” Model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(4), pages 339-360, September.
    3. Scott E. Page, 2007. "Prologue to The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies," Introductory Chapters, in: The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies, Princeton University Press.
    4. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    5. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    6. Francisco Triguero‐Ruiz & Antonio Avila‐Cano, 2023. "On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(3), pages 231-248, July.
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