IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v72y2025i4ne70005.html

Consensus, Diversity and the Wisdom of the Crowd: Predicting Final Rank Positions of the English Premier League

Author

Listed:
  • David O. Allen
  • Don J. Webber

Abstract

This study assesses the Wisdom of the Crowd premise using a natural experiment. We collected primary data relating to predictions of the final football club rank positions in the English Premier League over two consecutive seasons using an innovative game and compared these predictions with predictions made by sporting pundits, football blogs and inferred from betting odds. Our results question the Wisdom of the Crowd premise, and we show that scores generated by the Diversity Prediction Theorem vary from one season to the next, suggesting that crowds are not adept at predicting the unexpected.

Suggested Citation

  • David O. Allen & Don J. Webber, 2025. "Consensus, Diversity and the Wisdom of the Crowd: Predicting Final Rank Positions of the English Premier League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 72(4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:72:y:2025:i:4:n:e70005
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.70005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.70005
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjpe.70005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aloys Prinz & Stefan Thiem, 2021. "Value‐maximizing football clubs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 605-622, November.
    2. Paul Madden & Terry Robinson, 2012. "Supporter Influence on Club Governance in a Sports League; a “Utility Maximization” Model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(4), pages 339-360, September.
    3. Scott E. Page, 2007. "Prologue to The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies," Introductory Chapters, in: The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies, Princeton University Press.
    4. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    5. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    6. Francisco Triguero‐Ruiz & Antonio Avila‐Cano, 2023. "On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(3), pages 231-248, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Sloane, 2014. "Club objectives," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 1, pages 13-22, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Rodney Fort, 2015. "Managerial Objectives: A Retrospective on Utility Maximization in Pro Team Sports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(1), pages 75-89, February.
    3. Luc Arrondel & Jean-Pascal Gayant & Jean-François Laslier, 2023. "Economic analysis of the 12th man: should the fans be paid?," Post-Print halshs-03962599, HAL.
    4. Luc Arrondel & Richard Duhautois & Jean-François Laslier, 2023. "Profit vs. win maximization in a league: a paradox," Working Papers halshs-04358491, HAL.
    5. Lukas Richau & Florian Follert & Monika Frenger & Eike Emrich, 2021. "The Rainmaker?! The impact of investors on transfer fees in the English Premier League," Working Paper 187/2021, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    6. Marc Rohde & Christoph Breuer, 2018. "Competing by investments or efficiency? Exploring financial and sporting efficiency of club ownership structures in European football," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 563-581, December.
    7. Peter J. Sloane, 2015. "The Economics of Professional Football Revisited," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(1), pages 1-7, February.
    8. García, Borja & Welford, Jo, 2015. "Supporters and football governance, from customers to stakeholders: A literature review and agenda for research," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 517-528.
    9. László Csató, 2024. "Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 119-134, March.
    10. Olof Åslund & Oskar Nordströum Skans, 2012. "Do Anonymous Job Application Procedures Level the Playing Field?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(1), pages 82-107, January.
    11. Babatunde Buraimo, 2014. "Spectator demand and attendances in English league football," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 4, pages 60-72, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Gerring, John & Thacker, Strom C. & Lu, Yuan & Huang, Wei, 2015. "Does Diversity Impair Human Development? A Multi-Level Test of the Diversity Debit Hypothesis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    13. Dindo, Pietro & Massari, Filippo, 2020. "The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    14. Suhas D. Parandekar & Evgeny Patarakin & Gulcan Yayla, 2019. "Children Learning to Code," World Bank Publications - Reports 36726, The World Bank Group.
    15. R. Antonietti, 2006. "Human Capital, Sport Performance, and Salary Determination of Professional Athletes," Working Papers 561, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    16. repec:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:i:10:p:4092-4109 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Aga, B.K. & Tesfay, G.B., 2018. "How Should Rural Financial Cooperatives Be Best Organized? Evidence from Ethiopia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277735, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Jeffrey Goldstein & James K. Hazy & Joyce Silberstang, 2010. "A Complexity Science Model of Social Innovation in Social Enterprise," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 101-125, March.
    19. Sergio Destefanis & Francesco Addesa & Giambattista Rossi, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on home advantage: a conditional order-m analysis of football clubs’ efficiency in the top-5 European leagues," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(58), pages 6639-6655, December.
    20. Chad Sparber, 2010. "Racial Diversity and Macroeconomic Productivity across US States and Cities," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 71-85.
    21. Corrado Battisti, 2018. "Preparing students for the operational environmental career: an integrated project-based road map for academic programs," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 573-583, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:72:y:2025:i:4:n:e70005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.