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Modelling Risk in the Interwar Foreign Exchange Market


  • Fraser, Patricia
  • Taylor, Mark P


There is now evidence to reject the speculative efficiency hypothesis for the 1920s float. This paper investigates whether the rejection may be due to risk aversion. Two models of the risk premium are fitted: the ARCH-in-mean model and the DYMIMIC (kalman filter) model. Some support is found for the reichsmark, but the results are not otherwise supportive of either model. Copyright 1990 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser, Patricia & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Modelling Risk in the Interwar Foreign Exchange Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 37(3), pages 241-258, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:37:y:1990:i:3:p:241-58

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eytan Sheshinski & Yoram Weiss, 1977. "Inflation and Costs of Price Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 287-303.
    2. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    3. Parks, Richard W, 1978. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 79-95, February.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Mussa, Michael L, 1977. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Role of Money as a Unit of Account," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 276-286, May.
    6. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    2. Koning, Camiel de & Straetmans, Stefan, 1998. "Time varying forex market inefficiency," Serie Research Memoranda 0063, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Time-Varying Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market: New Evidence on its Persistence and on Currency Spillovers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5-6), pages 759-793.

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