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Estimating Directional Migration Flows From Age†Specific Net Migration Data

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  • Andrei Rogers
  • Junwei Liu

Abstract

This paper focuses on a method for indirectly inferring migration flows in the absence of migration data, using two successive counts of birthplace†specific population stocks. Such stocks have been used in the past to infer patterns of mortality and indeed of net migration. But a workable method for using such population stocks to indirectly estimate directional migration flows still eludes us. Widely observed regularities in the age patterns of outmigration indicate that age†specific propensities of migration are correlated, and this characteristic suggests an estimation method that directs attention to the age†specific relative propensities of two or more flows exhibited in the historically preceding time intervals, and then uses those past measures of relative propensities to disaggregate residually estimated net migration flows into the underlying contributions of inmigration and outmigration. A detailed demonstration of the method, applied to US data, is set out in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrei Rogers & Junwei Liu, 2005. "Estimating Directional Migration Flows From Age†Specific Net Migration Data," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 177-196, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:revurb:v:17:y:2005:i:3:p:177-196
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-940X.2005.00102.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.

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