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How China's Aging Consumption Drives Socioeconomic and Emissions Trends: Insights From a Structural Decomposition Analysis

Author

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  • Yafei Wang
  • Siyang Wu
  • Lixiao Xu
  • Arunima Malik

Abstract

China, accounting for one‐quarter of the world's elderly, is projected to transition to a super‐aged society by 2035, with major socio‐economic and environmental implications. This study links Chinese provincial multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) tables with the global input–output system, integrating SNA and SEEA satellite accounts (value added, employment, and carbon emissions) and applying a seven‐factor structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to capture effects by aging population consumption in 2005–2020. Results show a shift from output‐led to demography‐driven growth, with the aging ratio adding USD 516 billion to value added during 2015–2020, surpassing per capita elderly consumption. Aging demand drives heterogeneous interprovincial impacts and large international spillovers, shaped by trade‐linked economies and global supply chains. Case studies of Jiangsu and Guangdong reveal distinct import linkages and decarbonization trajectories. Findings highlight strategies to expand high‐value‐added, labor‐intensive, low‐carbon sectors, strengthen interprovincial coordination, and reorient trade policy toward imports that deliver integrated sustainability benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Yafei Wang & Siyang Wu & Lixiao Xu & Arunima Malik, 2026. "How China's Aging Consumption Drives Socioeconomic and Emissions Trends: Insights From a Structural Decomposition Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 72(2), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:72:y:2026:i:2:n:e70059
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.70059
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