The Puzzling Divergence Of Rents And User Costs, 1980-2004
This paper demonstrates that, in the context of U.S. housing data, rents and ex ante user costs diverge markedly-in both growth rates and levels-for extended periods of time, a seeming failure of arbitrage and a puzzle from the perspective of standard capital theory. The tremendous volatility of even appropriately-smoothed ex ante annual user cost measures implies that such measures are unsuitable for inclusion in official price statistics. The divergence holds not only at the aggregate level, but at the metropolitan-market level as well, and is robust across different house price and rent measures. But transactions costs matter: the large persistent divergences did not imply the presence of unexploited profit opportunities. In particular, even though detached housing is readily moved between owner and renter markets, and the detached-unit rental market is surprisingly thick, transactions costs would have prevented risk-neutral investors from earning expected profits by buying a property to rent out for a year, and would have prevented risk-neutral homeowners from earning expected profits by selling their homes and becoming renters for a year. Finally, computing implied appreciation as a residual yields a house price forecast with huge errors; but either longer-horizon or no-real-capital-gains forecasts-which turn out to have similar forecast errors-imply a far less divergent user cost measure which might ultimately be useful for official price statistics. Some conjectures are offered. Copyright 2008 The Author Journal compilation 2008 International Association for Research in Income and Wealth Published by Blackwell Publishing.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 54 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6586|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0034-6586|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
- Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 1999.
"Measuring housing services inflation,"
99-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Donald Haurin & Patric Hendershott & Dongwook Kim, 1991.
"Local House Price Indexes: 1982-1991,"
NBER Working Papers
3933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2002.
"The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction,"
NBER Working Papers
9284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 37-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl E Case & John M Quigley & Robert J Shiller, 2003.
"Home-buyers, Housing and the Macroeconomy,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,
in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2003. "Home-buyers, Housing and the Macroeconomy," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt0v59r392, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
NBER Working Papers
2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Bridget Cronin & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2008.
"Rents have been rising, not falling, in the postwar period,"
08-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2010. "Rents Have Been Rising, Not Falling, in the Postwar Period," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 628-642, August.
- John S. Greenlees, 1982. "An Empirical Evaluation of the CPI Home Purchase Index, 1973-1978," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24.
- Michelle H. Dreiman & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2004.
"Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 299-317, 05.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Michelle H. Dreiman, 2002. "Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices," Staff Working Papers 02-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
- Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004.
"The price and quantity of residential land in the United States,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2004-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
- Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jonathan Heathcote & Morris Davis, 2004. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," 2004 Meeting Papers 32, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-87, Jan.-Marc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:54:y:2008:i:4:p:671-699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.