LA METHODE DE PROJECTION A MOYEN TERME DES CIRCUITS FINANCIERS UTILISEE DANS LA PREPARATION DU Ve PLAN FRANÇAIS

In the course of preparing the Fifth French Plan, it seemed necessary to study the problem of equilibrium in capital markets in the future. For this purpose, a projection was made of the financial needs and resources of the different economic agents. The method employed was not entirely new: some attempts at projection for the medium term had already been made in the preparation of the Fourth Plan, and each year short term projections are made in connection with the different national economic budgets. However, the work on the Fifth Plan departs somewhat from what has been done before. With respect to the Fourth Plan, the methods have been improved, and greater thought has been given to integrating financial problems into the framework of the national accounts. With respect to the short term projections, the problems which must be faced are somewhat different. But more important than the differences are the characteristics which this method shares with all projections based on national accounting which are used in France. It is a part, in the first place, of a very general effort looking toward the integration of all economic forecasts into the same description of the future, taking account of the interdependence of different kinds of phenomena. In the second place, as is the case generally for the different elements of the accounting sketches used in the preparation of the plan, the object of the work is to expose the probable difficulties which will be met in the future. What is sought is essentially methods tending to point out problems, rather than means of preparing unconditional forecasts. In the presentation which follows of the method of medium term projection of financial flows, three parts will be distinguished. The work in question is part of a large structure of projections, and makes use of a formal scheme which is itself a part of the system of national accounts. It will therefore be convenient to make clear the framework in which the projection of financial flows is situated. In a second section, the method of projection used will be explained in general outline, and the last section will characterize the results obtained and present some reflections on the scope of the method.