IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v33y2025i5p1035-1065.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of International Trade Agreements During Economic and Policy Crises: Evidence From U.S. Firm Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Jeronimo Carballo
  • Kyle Handley
  • Nuno Limão

Abstract

We use U.S. firm exports from 2003 to 2011 to establish facts about export dynamics in a crisis marked by economic and policy uncertainty. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection, and their interaction dampen export investments, which can be partially offset by trade agreements that mitigate policy uncertainty. We find a significant role for uncertainty in explaining the trade collapse in the 2008 crisis and partial recovery in its aftermath. We find that the negative effects worked (1) through the extensive margin, (2) in destinations without preferential agreements with the United States, and (3) in industries with higher potential protection. U.S. exports to nonpreferential markets would have been 6.5% higher under an agreement—equivalent to an 8% foreign GDP increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeronimo Carballo & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2025. "The Role of International Trade Agreements During Economic and Policy Crises: Evidence From U.S. Firm Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1035-1065, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:33:y:2025:i:5:p:1035-1065
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.70005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.70005
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.70005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:33:y:2025:i:5:p:1035-1065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.