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House Prices and Inflation

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  • Ali Anari
  • James Kolari

Abstract

The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968-2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2002. "House Prices and Inflation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 67-84.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:1:p:67-84
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Fereidouni Gholipour & Usama Al-mulali & Abdul Hakim Mohammed, 2014. "Foreign investments in real estate, economic growth and property prices: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 33-45, March.
    2. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    3. Kuang-Liang Chang & Ming-Hui Yen, 2014. "The magnitude and significance of macroeconomic variables in explaining regional housing fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 828-841.
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:15-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    6. Kolisi, Nwabisa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Changes in the relationship between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," MPRA Paper 80173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhou, Y., 2014. "Essays on habit formation and inflation hedging," Other publications TiSEM 4886da12-1b84-4fd9-aa07-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Deokho Cho & Seungryul Ma, 2006. "Dynamic Relationship between Housing Values and Interest Rates in the Korean Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 169-184, March.
    9. Aqsha, Nur Suhairah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Is residential property the ultimate hedge against inflation ? new evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and nonlinear ARDL," MPRA Paper 91508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    11. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & Stefan Staetmans & Marcel Theebe, 2014. "Inflation Protection from Homeownership: Long-Run Evidence, 1814–2008," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 662-689, September.
    12. Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2008. "Big City Difference? Another Look at Factors Driving House Prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 157-177, November.
    13. Tan, Teck Hong, 2009. "Home owning motivation in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 34906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sanidas, Elias & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2006. "The Consequences of Trade Liberalisation on the Australian Passenger Motor Vehicle Industry," Economics Working Papers wp06-01, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Relationship between House Prices and Inflation in South Africa: An ARDL Approach," Working Papers 201130, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. William Goetzmann & Eduardas Valaitis, 2006. "Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2476, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2006.
    17. Wei-han Liu & Zhefang Zhou, 2009. "Inflation-hedging Behavior of a Securitized Real Estate Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 221-251.
    18. Paul Anthony Mariadas & Mahiswaran Selvanathan & Tan Kok Hong, 2016. "A Study on Housing Price in Klang Valley, Malaysia," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(12), pages 103-109, December.

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