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Probit model forecasts of national and state manufacturing and construction employment downturns

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  • Gary L. Shoesmith

Abstract

. This study extends Shoesmith (2003) by generating probit model forecasts of downturns in national and state manufacturing and construction employment, using average weekly hours in manufacturing (HRS) and housing permits (HP), respectively, as explanatory variables. In each case the yield spread (SPREAD) is used as an alternative to HRS or HP. The expected result is that HRS and HP are more effective than SPREAD in forecasting downturns in related sectors of employment. However, the estimation and forecast results for the nation and 50 states show that SPREAD is in general more useful than HRS and HP, primarily because of the short lead times provided by the leading indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary L. Shoesmith, 2005. "Probit model forecasts of national and state manufacturing and construction employment downturns," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(4), pages 531-552, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:84:y:2005:i:4:p:531-552
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2005.00025.x
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