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Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System

Author

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  • Jennifer L. Castle
  • Jurgen A. Doornik
  • David F. Hendry
  • Luke P. Jackson

Abstract

A cointegrated vector equilibrium correction model of key climate variables including sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, Arctic sea‐ice extent and sea‐level change is built, driven by radiative forcing in which a stochastic trend arises due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. A valid and congruent statistical model requires saturation estimation to model breaks in trends, while also conditioning on natural radiative forcings and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The model is stable over 150 years, reflecting the slow adjustment of the deep oceans to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and predicts an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6°C. Projections out to 2100 highlight the many uncertainties over the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Luke P. Jackson, 2026. "Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 88(4), pages 783-802, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:88:y:2026:i:4:p:783-802
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.70047
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