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The Compatriot Win Effect and Behavioural Biases in Lottery Markets

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  • David Boto‐García
  • Álvaro Muñiz‐Fernández
  • Levi Pérez

Abstract

This paper presents evidence to support the compatriot win effect as a behavioural bias in lottery demand. We exploit the quasi‐random assignment of the jackpot prize across provinces in the Christmas draw of the Spanish National Lottery to examine whether lottery sales increase in jackpot‐winning provinces in subsequent draws. Using difference‐in‐differences with staggered treatment timing, we present robust evidence that lottery sales in provinces where the jackpot is awarded experience a significant boost in subsequent draws. The compatriot win effect appears to operate through increased media coverage in winning regions, which boosts lottery demand by enhancing the salience of the draw.

Suggested Citation

  • David Boto‐García & Álvaro Muñiz‐Fernández & Levi Pérez, 2026. "The Compatriot Win Effect and Behavioural Biases in Lottery Markets," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 88(2), pages 375-396, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:88:y:2026:i:2:p:375-396
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.70005
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