IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s Fiscal Multiplier and Its State Dependence


  • Wen Zhang
  • Yangyang Zhang
  • Xinye Zheng
  • Li Zhang


This paper studies the effects of government spending on China’s output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. The empirical findings suggest that increasing government expenditure significantly raises China’s aggregate output. Contrary to the evidence of countercyclical fiscal multipliers in the advanced economies, China’s fiscal multiplier tends to be procyclical, suggesting a novel fiscal policy transmission mechanism in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Zhang & Yangyang Zhang & Xinye Zheng & Li Zhang, 2019. "China’s Fiscal Multiplier and Its State Dependence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(2), pages 205-227, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:87:y:2019:i:2:p:205-227

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:87:y:2019:i:2:p:205-227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.