Konsum, Einkommen Und Rationale Erwartungen: Empirische Ergebnisse Für Die Schweiz

The life cycle hypothesis of consumption and rational (in the sense of Muth) expectations implies under certain additional, but not very restrictive, assumptions that real consumption follows an univariate first order autoregressive process. This implication was tested in the framework of bivariate autoregressive models with Swiss quarterly macroeconomic data. A slightly modified variant of the stepwise modelling approach suggested by Hsiao was applied. The hypothesis was rejected with respect to a ‘Neo‐Ricardian’ definition of disposable income and real stock prices. By contrast, the test with the conventional definition of disposable income brought not significant results. These findings rise some doubts about the usual specification of macroeconometric consumption functions and their policy implications.