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Der Beitrag Der Geldpolitik Zur Konjunkturellen Entwicklung In Der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1973‐1980

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  • Manfred J.
  • M. Neumann

Abstract

This paper examines the contribution of monetary policy to the development of inflation and real growth in the Federal Republic of Germany since 1973. The investigation is based on a macro‐model for the shorter run, taking into account rational expectations of permanent impulses. Reduced form estimates for the period 1973‐1980, based on semi‐annual data, permit to explain about 80 percent of the variances of the inflation rate and of output growth. The estimates are used to demonstrate (i) that the severe recession of 1974/75 was initiated by unanticipated contractionary impulses from monetary policy and from relative import prices, (ii) that monetary policy did not reduce the variance of output growth, resulting from unanticipated impulses of relative import prices and real export demand, (iii) that monetary policy supported inflation by providing too large permanent impulses.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfred J. & M. Neumann, 1981. "Der Beitrag Der Geldpolitik Zur Konjunkturellen Entwicklung In Der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1973‐1980," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-431, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:34:y:1981:i:3:p:405-431
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1981.tb01197.x
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    Cited by:

    1. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1999. "Money growth targeting by the Bundesbank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 681-701, June.
    2. Lehment, Harmen, 1983. "The macroeconomic implications of public sector deficits," Kiel Working Papers 168, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Scheide, Joachim, 1991. "On the causality between output, money and the terms of trade in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 475, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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