Länder‐ Und Branchenkonjunkturverbund

The authors try to analyse the phenomenon of the international connection of business cycles of countries and industries between 13 grand OEGD countries and 5 important industries during the period from 1960‐1975, whether and how the strength and the structure of interdependence have changed and whether there can be observed a systematical influence of the formation of zones of integration, EEC and EFTA, on the connection of business cycles. The study is based on principal component analysis and transformation analysis. The results are conducive to an increase of connection of business cycles between all countries concerned. Regarding the structure of international interdependence there is demonstrated that the process of integration has now passed beyond the border of the former EEC and EFTA and included all important industrial countries. The authors conclude that an international convention of economic policy — in order to be successful — cannot be restricted to the European Community only but would have to integrate all important industrial countries.