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A General Test For Univariate Seasonality

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  • Rafael Flores
  • Alfonso Novales

Abstract

We propose a general test for univariate seasonality. Starting from a multivariate model for the seasons, some constraints must hold, both on the covariance matrix of the innovations and among coefficients across equations, for a univariate representation of seasonality to be appropriate. Applied to a set of 23 UK macroeconomic variables, our test shows that a multivariate representation of seasonality should be preferred in at least eight cases. This introduces a serious questioning of standard univariate filters to estimate the seasonal component in some economic time series, and suggests the possibility of a more complex but richer way of characterizing relationships among seasonal economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Flores & Alfonso Novales, 1997. "A General Test For Univariate Seasonality," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 29-48, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:18:y:1997:i:1:p:29-48
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9892.00037
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    Cited by:

    1. Novales, Alfonso & de Fruto, Rafael Flores, 1997. "Forecasting with periodic models A comparison with time invariant coefficient models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 393-405, September.
    2. Sajjad Akhtar, 2003. "Is There Seasonality in Pakistan’s Merchandise Exports and Imports? The Univariate Modelling Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 59-75.
    3. Pilar Abad & Alfonso Novales, 2004. "Volatility transmission across the term structure of swap markets: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1045-1058.

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