IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssc/v53y2004i4p583-600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Author

Listed:
  • Konstadinos Politis
  • Lennart Robertson

Abstract

Summary. We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstadinos Politis & Lennart Robertson, 2004. "Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 53(4), pages 583-600, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:53:y:2004:i:4:p:583-600
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2004.04837.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2004.04837.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2004.04837.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:53:y:2004:i:4:p:583-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.