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Radiocarbon dating with temporal order constraints

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  • Geoff Nicholls
  • Martin Jones

Abstract

Bayesian methods are now widely used for analysing radiocarbon dates. We find that the non‐informative priors in use in the literature generate a bias towards wider date ranges which does not in general reflect substantial prior knowledge. We recommend using a prior in which the distribution of the difference between the earliest and latest dates has a uniform distribution. We show how such priors are derived from a simple physical model of the deposition and observation process. We illustrate this in a case‐study, examining the effect that various priors have on the reconstructed dates. Bayes factors are used to help to decide model choice problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoff Nicholls & Martin Jones, 2001. "Radiocarbon dating with temporal order constraints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 50(4), pages 503-521.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:50:y:2001:i:4:p:503-521
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9876.00250
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