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Assessing the Losses Caused by an Industrial Intervention: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

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  • Elja Arjas
  • Liping Liu

Abstract

A nonparametric multiplicative hazard model is proposed, and applied to the estimation of losses caused by a strike at a Quebec aluminium smelter in 1967. The Bayesian approach is adopted, and Gibbs sampling for the numerical computations. We obtain a posterior distribution of the hazard rate and the corresponding predictive distribution of the projected losses. The main merit of the approach proposed is that the uncertainties concerning the actual losses, both in terms of the total number of operating days lost and the excess number of damaged aluminium reduction cells, can be quantified with probabilities. The compensation of the losses is discussed, and the results are compared with some point estimates from earlier analyses of the same data.

Suggested Citation

  • Elja Arjas & Liping Liu, 1995. "Assessing the Losses Caused by an Industrial Intervention: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 44(3), pages 357-368, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:44:y:1995:i:3:p:357-368
    DOI: 10.2307/2986042
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    1. Elja Arjas, 2004. "Reply to Discussion," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 31(2), pages 198-201, June.

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