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The Evaluation of Fibre Transfer Evidence in Forensic Science: A Case Study in Statistical Modelling

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  • J. C. Wakefield
  • A. M. Skene
  • A. F. M. Smith
  • I. W. Evett

Abstract

Frequently, when a crime is committed, fibres are left at the scene. This paper examines the modelling aspects of evaluating the evidential content of such fibres by using a Bayesian approach. Inferences are made via the likelihood ratio, derived from bivariate colour measurements. Modelling the distribution of colour within a particular garment is discussed in detail. In addition, a large database allows an empirical prior distribution to be incorporated, utilizing kernel density estimation. Data from actual casework are analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • J. C. Wakefield & A. M. Skene & A. F. M. Smith & I. W. Evett, 1991. "The Evaluation of Fibre Transfer Evidence in Forensic Science: A Case Study in Statistical Modelling," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 40(3), pages 461-476, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:40:y:1991:i:3:p:461-476
    DOI: 10.2307/2347526
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