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The Effects of Expectations on Technology Adoption: Some Empirical Evidence

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  • Weiss, Allen M

Abstract

N. Rosenberg (1976) argues that in many markets prospective buyers for an innovation are strongly influenced by expectations '. . . concerning the timing and significance of future improvements . . .' The primary objectives of this article are to provide a model of the innovation decision process of user firms that expect improvements in current best technology and to offer an empirical study that tests the model's predictions. Among other results, the author finds empirical support for Rosenberg's argument and demonstrates theoretically that, compared to models without technological expectations and learning, the optimal decision process is nonmonotonic. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiss, Allen M, 1994. "The Effects of Expectations on Technology Adoption: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 341-360, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:42:y:1994:i:4:p:341-60
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    Cited by:

    1. Kounetas, Kostas & Tsekouras, Kostas, 2008. "The energy efficiency paradox revisited through a partial observability approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2517-2536, September.
    2. Rivas, Javier, 2010. "The effects of the market structure on the adoption of evolving technologies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2485-2493, December.
    3. Somma, Ernesto, 1999. "The effect of incomplete information about future technological opportunities on pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 765-799, August.
    4. Mueller, Steffen, 2006. "Missing the spark: An investigation into the low adoption paradox of combined heat and power technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3153-3164, November.
    5. Tetsuya Kasahara, 2015. "Strategic Technology Adoption Under Dispersed Information and Information Learning," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(06), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
    7. Adela Luque, 2003. "The Role of Technological and Industrial Heterogeneity In Technology Diffusion: a Markovian Approach," Working Papers 03-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Rakotoarisoa, Manitra A., 2011. "The impact of agricultural policy distortions on the productivity gap: Evidence from rice production," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 147-157, April.
    9. Doraszelski, Ulrich, 2004. "Innovations, improvements, and the optimal adoption of new technologies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1461-1480, April.
    10. Fonseca, Tiago & Lima, Francisco & Pereira, Sonia C., 2018. "Understanding productivity dynamics: A task taxonomy approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 289-304.
    11. Rakotoarisoa, Manitra A., 2008. "The Impact of Agricultural Policy Distortions on the Productivity Gap: Evidence from the Rice Production," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6154, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Adela Luque, 2002. "An option-value approach to technology adoption in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from microdata," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 543-568.
    13. Sahay, Arvind, 2013. "Market-Driving Behaviors: A Framework for Developing Theory and Practice," IIMA Working Papers WP2013-05-07, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    14. Baldwin, John R. & Raffiquzzaman, Mohammed, 1998. "The Determinants of the Adoption Lag for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1998117e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    15. Adela Luque, 2000. "An Option-Value Approach to Technology in U.S. Maufacturing: Evidence from Plant-Level Data," Working Papers 00-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Battisti, Giuliana & Stoneman, Paul, 2005. "The intra-firm diffusion of new process technologies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Wilhelm, Wilbert E. & Xu, Kaihong, 2002. "Prescribing product upgrades, prices and production levels over time in a stochastic environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 601-621, May.
    18. Baldwin, John R. & Raffiquzzaman, Mohammed, 1998. "Les facteurs determinants des retards en matiere d'adoption des technologies de fabrication de pointe," Direction des etudes analytiques : documents de recherche 1998117f, Statistics Canada, Direction des etudes analytiques.

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