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Government Bond Market Seasonality, Diversification, and Cointegration: International Evidence

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  • Kenneth L. Smith

Abstract

Using government bond market data for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Japan, I investigate several hypotheses. Market efficiency is investigated by testing for seasonality and cointegration. The seasonality results are mixed. In regression tests, a January effect is detected in several markets (United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Canada) using local currencies. However, in a nonparametric test, the January effect is supported only for France. When U.S. dollar returns are used, regression results also reveal a January effect for several markets (United States, Germany, France, and United Kingdom). These results are not confirmed by a nonparametric test. Correlation analysis shows considerable diversification opportunities for short-term investors. Cointegration tests indicate that several of the markets share cointegrating vectors, increasing the possibilities of using other endogenous bond markets to better predict movements in a particular market. Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth L. Smith, 2002. "Government Bond Market Seasonality, Diversification, and Cointegration: International Evidence," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 203-221.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:203-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Najeeb, Syed Faiq & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Does a held-to-maturity strategy impede effective portfolio diversification for Islamic bond (sukuk) portfolios? A multi-scale continuous wavelet correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 56956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7748 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kim, Suk-Joong & Lucey, Brian M. & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Dynamics of bond market integration between established and accession European Union countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-56, February.
    5. He, Hui & Locke, Peter, 2011. "Global trends in real risk free rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 53-63, January.
    6. Smith, Kenneth L. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2008. "The dynamics among G7 government bond and equity markets and the implications for international capital market diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 222-245, June.
    7. Irvin W. Morgan Jr & James P. Murtagh, 2012. "An analysis of global credit risk spreads during crises," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 341-358.
    8. Ciner, Cetin, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between international bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 290-303, October.
    9. Kim, Suk-Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Evolution of international stock and bond market integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1507-1534, May.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7746 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    12. Jian Yang, 2005. "Government bond market linkages: evidence from Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 599-610.
    13. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1021-1029 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    15. Jeon, Bang Nam & Ji, Philip & Zhang, Hongfang, 2012. "International linkages of Japanese bond markets: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 36929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2012.
    16. Brian M Lucey & Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2005. "Dynamics of Bond Market Integration between Existing And Accession EU Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp025, IIIS.

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