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Exploring the Nature of "Trader Intuition"

Author

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  • ANTOINE J. BRUGUIER
  • STEVEN R. QUARTZ
  • PETER BOSSAERTS

Abstract

Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. After contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders, we hypothesize that Theory of Mind (ToM) helps explain this pattern, where ToM refers to the human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH-like persistence in transaction price changes that may help investors read markets when there are insiders. Copyright (c) 2010 the American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine J. Bruguier & Steven R. Quartz & Peter Bossaerts, 2010. "Exploring the Nature of "Trader Intuition"," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1703-1723, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:65:y:2010:i:5:p:1703-1723
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    Cited by:

    1. Brañas-Garza, Pablo & García-Muñoz, Teresa & González, Roberto Hernán, 2012. "Cognitive effort in the Beauty Contest Game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 254-260.
    2. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Thomas Stoeckl, 2013. "Price efficiency and trading behavior in limit order markets with competing insiders," Working Papers 2013-11, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    4. Thomas Stöckl, 2014. "Price efficiency and trading behavior in limit order markets with competing insiders," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(2), pages 314-334, June.
    5. Camelia M. Kuhnen, 2015. "Asymmetric Learning from Financial Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2029-2062, October.
    6. David L. Dickinson & Ananish Chaudhuri & Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2017. "Trading while sleepy? Circadian mismatch and excess volatility in a global experimental asset market," Working Papers 17-06, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    7. Michael Seiler & Eric Walden, 2015. "A Neurological Explanation of Strategic Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 215-230, August.
    8. Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2011. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 1102, Xiamen Unversity, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Finance and Economics Experimental Laboratory, revised 14 Apr 2011.
    9. repec:bla:stratm:v:38:y:2017:i:12:p:2390-2423 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Michael J. Seiler & Eric Walden, 2015. "A Neurological Explanation of Strategic Mortgage Default," Artefactual Field Experiments 00632, The Field Experiments Website.
    11. Johannes Leder & Leonhard Schilbach & Andreas Mojzisch, 2016. "Strategic Decision-Making and Social Skills: Integrating Behavioral Economics and Social Cognition Research," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, November.
    12. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Florian Lindner & Jürgen Huber & Julia Rose & Michael Kirchler, 2018. "Bubbles and financial professionals," Working Papers 2018-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck, revised Mar 2018.
    13. Stefan Palan & Thomas Stöckl, 2014. "When chasing the offender hurts the victim: Collateral damage from insider legislation," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2014-03, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    14. Cary Frydman & Nicholas Barberis & Colin Camerer & Peter Bossaerts & Antonio Rangel, 2012. "Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior: An Application to Realization Utility," NBER Working Papers 18562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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