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Bayesian Alphas and Mutual Fund Persistence

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  • JEFFREY A. BUSSE
  • PAUL J. IRVINE

Abstract

We use daily returns to compare the performance predictability of Bayesian estimates of mutual fund performance with standard frequentist measures. When the returns on passive nonbenchmark assets are correlated with fund holdings, incorporating histories of these returns produces a performance measure that predicts future performance better than standard measures do. Bayesian alphas based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are particularly useful for predicting future standard CAPM alphas. Over our sample period, priors consistent with moderate to diffuse beliefs in managerial skill dominate more skeptical prior beliefs, a result that is consistent with investor cash flows. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Busse & Paul J. Irvine, 2006. "Bayesian Alphas and Mutual Fund Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2251-2288, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:5:p:2251-2288
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    Cited by:

    1. Shaun Bond & Paul Mitchell, 2010. "Alpha and Persistence in Real Estate Fund Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-79, July.
    2. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:13:d:65308 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Witkowska Dorota, 2012. "Measurement of the Efficiency of Mutual Funds Operating on the Pan-European Market," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, De Gruyter Open, vol. 12(2), pages 126-146, December.
    4. Gallefoss, Kristoffer & Hansen, Helge Hoff & Haukaas, Eirik Solli & Molnár, Peter, 2015. "What daily data can tell us about mutual funds: Evidence from Norway," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-129.
    5. Hunter, David & Kandel, Eugene & Kandel, Shmuel & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Mutual fund performance evaluation with active peer benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 1-29.
    6. Daniel R. Cavagnaro & Berk A. Sensoy & Yingdi Wang & Michael S. Weisbach, 2016. "Measuring Institutional Investors’ Skill from Their Investments in Private Equity," NBER Working Papers 22547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
    9. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu, 2016. "Rethinking Performance Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 22134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2016. "Assessing asset pricing models using revealed preference," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-23.
    11. Urbi Garay & Enrique ter Horst & German Molina & Abel Rodriguez, 2016. "Bayesian Nonparametric Measurement of Factor Betas and Clustering with Application to Hedge Fund Returns," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Ruiz-Verdú, Pablo & Gil-Bazo, Javier, 2006. "Yet another puzzle? the relation between price and performance in the mutual fund industry," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb066519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    13. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    14. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
    15. Feng, Xunan & Zhou, Mingshan & Chan, Kam C., 2014. "Smart money or dumb money? A study on the selection ability of mutual fund investors in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 154-170.
    16. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
    17. Yee Loon, 2011. "Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-205, February.
    18. Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," Working Papers 2014/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    19. Bauer, Rob & Cosemans, Mathijs & Eichholtz, Piet, 2009. "Option trading and individual investor performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 731-746, April.
    20. Dahm, Laura K. & Sorhage, Christoph, 2015. "Milk or wine: Mutual funds' (dis)economies of life," CFR Working Papers 15-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    21. Göricke, Marc-André, 2016. "Do generalists profit from the fund families' specialists? Evidence from mutual fund families offering sector funds," CFR Working Papers 16-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    22. Doron Avramov & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Bayesian Portfolio Analysis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 25-47, December.
    23. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
    24. repec:eee:jfinec:v:124:y:2017:i:3:p:535-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Cohen-Cole, Ethan & Kirilenko, Andrei & Patacchini, Eleonora, 2014. "Trading networks and liquidity provision," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 235-251.

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