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Expected Returns, Time-Varying Risk, and Risk Premia


  • Evans, Martin D D


A new empirical model for intertemporal capital asset pricing is presented that allows both time-varying risk premia and betas where the latter are identified from the dynamics of the conditional covariance of returns. The model is more successful in explaining the predictable variations in excess returns when the returns on the stock market and corporate bonds are included as risk factors than when the stock market is the single factor. Although changes in the covariance of returns induce variations in the betas, most of the predictable movements in returns are attributed to changes in the risk premia. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Martin D D, 1994. " Expected Returns, Time-Varying Risk, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 655-679, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:2:p:655-79

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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Ludwig Keiber & Helene Samyschew, 2015. "The role of sentiment in global risk premia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(20), pages 2073-2091, April.
    2. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 2000. "Infering Forward Looking Financial Market Risk Premia from Derivatives Prices," Research Paper Series 42, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Eckbo, B. Espen & Norli, Øyvind, 2004. "The choice of seasoned-equity selling mechanism: Theory and evidence," Discussion Papers 2004/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    5. Byrne, Joseph P & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2017. "The Time-Varying Risk Price of Currency Carry Trades," MPRA Paper 80788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2017. "The world price of sentiment risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 62-82.
    7. Yao, Wenjing & Mei, Bin, 2015. "Assessing forestry-related assets with the intertemporal capital asset pricing model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 192-199.
    8. Bhar Ramaprasad & Chiarella Carl & Runggaldier Wolfgang J., 2004. "Inferring the Forward Looking Equity Risk Premium from Derivative Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Eckbo, B. Espen & Norli, Oyvind, 2005. "Liquidity risk, leverage and long-run IPO returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-35, March.
    10. Bruce Niendorf & Thomas Ottaway, 2002. "Wealth effects of time variation in investor risk preferences," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 77-87, March.
    11. Viviana Fernández, 2001. "A Liquidity Premium Puzzle?: Evidence from Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 105, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    12. Yuming Li, 1998. "Time Variations In Risk Premia, Volatility, And Reward-To-Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 431-446, December.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Min-Hsien Chiang & Long-Jainn Hwang & Yui-Chi Wu, 2004. "Insider Trading Performance in the Taiwan Stock Market," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(3), pages 239-256, December.
    15. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 355-380, June.
    16. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2016. "The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets," Discussion Papers 384, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    17. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "Filtering Equity Risk Premia From Derivative Prices," Research Paper Series 69, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September.
    19. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189.

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