IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/istatr/v93y2025i2p288-316.html

How Do Applied Researchers Use the Causal Forest? A Methodological Review

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Rehill

Abstract

This methodological review examines the use of the causal forest method by applied researchers across 133 peer‐reviewed papers. It shows that the emerging best practice relies heavily on the approach and tools created by the original authors of the causal forest such as their grf package and the approaches given by them in examples. Generally, researchers use the causal forest on a relatively low‐dimensional dataset relying on observed controls or in some cases experiments to identify effects. There are several common ways to then communicate results–by mapping out the univariate distribution of individual‐level treatment effect estimates, displaying variable importance results for the forest and graphing the distribution of treatment effects across covariates that are important either for theoretical reasons or because they have high variable importance. Some deviations from this common practice are interesting and deserve further development and use. Others are unnecessary or even harmful. The paper concludes by reflecting on the emerging best practice for causal forest use and paths for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Rehill, 2025. "How Do Applied Researchers Use the Causal Forest? A Methodological Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 93(2), pages 288-316, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:istatr:v:93:y:2025:i:2:p:288-316
    DOI: 10.1111/insr.12610
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.12610
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/insr.12610?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susan Athey & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Policy Learning With Observational Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 133-161, January.
    2. Marta Serra-Garcia & Nora Szech, 2023. "Incentives and Defaults Can Increase COVID-19 Vaccine Intentions and Test Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 1037-1049, February.
    3. Elek, Péter & Bíró, Anikó, 2021. "Regional differences in diabetes across Europe – regression and causal forest analyses," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    4. Guihua Wang, 2022. "The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Wait Time in the Emergency Department," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6648-6665, September.
    5. Stefan Wager & Susan Athey, 2018. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1228-1242, July.
    6. Lechner, Michael, 2018. "Modified Causal Forests for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 12040, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Jeff Allen & Santiago Carbo-Valverde & Sujit Chakravorti & Francisco Rodriguez-Fernandez & Oya Pinar Ardic, 2022. "Assessing incentives to increase digital payment acceptance and usage: A machine learning approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-29, November.
    8. Obbey A. Elamin, 2023. "Overeducation wage penalty for university graduates: evidence from the MENA region using machine learning techniques," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 151-188, January.
    9. Chengfeng Yu & Jiyu Yu & Da Gao, 2024. "Smart Cities and Greener Futures: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China’s Smart City Construction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, January.
    10. Qihang Xue & Huimin Wang & Caiquan Bai, 2023. "Local green finance policies and corporate ESG performance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 721-749, December.
    11. Dylong, Patrick & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Biased beliefs about immigration and economic concerns: Evidence from representative experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 453-482.
    12. Alberto Abadie, 2005. "Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 1-19.
    13. Yin, Weiwen & Huo, Weidong & Lin, Danyang, 2023. "The effects of state coercion on voting outcome in protest movements: a causal forest approach," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 645-653, July.
    14. Huber, Martin & Meier, Jonas & Wallimann, Hannes, 2022. "Business analytics meets artificial intelligence: Assessing the demand effects of discounts on Swiss train tickets," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 22-39.
    15. Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine & Nilsson, Björn, 2023. "Role models, aspirations and desire to migrate," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 819-839.
    16. Cattaneo Matias D. & Frandsen Brigham R. & Titiunik Rocío, 2015. "Randomization Inference in the Regression Discontinuity Design: An Application to Party Advantages in the U.S. Senate," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24.
    17. Cockx, Bart & Lechner, Michael & Bollens, Joost, 2023. "Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Hodula, Martin & Melecký, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Szabo, Milan, 2023. "Cooling the mortgage loan market: The effect of borrower-based limits on new mortgage lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Jonathan M.V. Davis & Sara B. Heller, 2020. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 664-677, October.
    20. Patrick Rehill & Nicholas Biddle, 2023. "Transparency challenges in policy evaluation with causal machine learning -- improving usability and accountability," Papers 2310.13240, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    21. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    22. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    23. Jeff Allen & Santiago Carbo Valverde & Sujit Chakravorti & Francisco Rodriguez-Fernandez & Oya Pinar Ardic, 2022. "Assessing Incentives to Increase Digital Payment Acceptance and Usage," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 37487, April.
    24. Victor Chernozhukov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Iván Fernández‐Val, 2025. "Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(4), pages 1121-1164, July.
    25. J. Michelle Brock & Ralph De Haas, 2023. "Discriminatory Lending: Evidence from Bankers in the Lab," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 31-68, April.
    26. Dana Turjeman & Fred M. Feinberg, 2024. "When the Data Are Out: Measuring Behavioral Changes Following a Data Breach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 440-461, March.
    27. Patrick Rehill, 2024. "Distilling interpretable causal trees from causal forests," Papers 2408.01023, arXiv.org.
    28. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, July.
    29. Yujie Xu & Vivian Loftness & Edson Severnini, 2021. "Using Machine Learning to Predict Retrofit Effects for a Commercial Building Portfolio," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-24, July.
    30. Patrick Rehill & Nicholas Biddle, 2023. "Fairness Implications of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation with Machine Learning Methods in Policy-making," Papers 2309.00805, arXiv.org.
    31. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, January.
    32. Roland Hodler & Michael Lechner & Paul A Raschky, 2023. "Institutions and the resource curse: New insights from causal machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-20, June.
    33. Vira Semenova & Victor Chernozhukov, 2021. "Debiased machine learning of conditional average treatment effects and other causal functions," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 264-289.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Drini Imami & Orjon Xhoxhi & Davit Babayan & Thomas Herzfeld & Rustam Rakhmetov, 2026. "Treatment Effect Heterogeneity of Farmers Participating in Cooperatives," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(1), pages 94-106, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Rehill, 2024. "How do applied researchers use the Causal Forest? A methodological review of a method," Papers 2404.13356, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    2. Patrick Rehill & Nicholas Biddle, 2023. "Transparency challenges in policy evaluation with causal machine learning -- improving usability and accountability," Papers 2310.13240, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    3. Michael Lechner, 2023. "Causal Machine Learning and its use for public policy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Michael Zimmert & Michael Lechner, 2019. "Nonparametric estimation of causal heterogeneity under high-dimensional confounding," Papers 1908.08779, arXiv.org.
    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Ivan Fernandez-Val, 2017. "Generic machine learning inference on heterogenous treatment effects in randomized experiments," CeMMAP working papers CWP61/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Patrick Rehill & Nicholas Biddle, 2024. "Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation with high-dimensional data in public policy evaluation -- an application to the conditioning of cash transfers in Morocco using causal machine learning," Papers 2401.07075, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    8. Evelina Gavrilova & Audun Langørgen & Floris T. Zoutman, 2025. "Difference‐in‐Difference Causal Forests With an Application to Payroll Tax Incidence in Norway," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 727-740, November.
    9. Henrika Langen & Martin Huber, 2023. "How causal machine learning can leverage marketing strategies: Assessing and improving the performance of a coupon campaign," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, January.
    10. Alejandro Sanchez-Becerra, 2023. "Robust inference for the treatment effect variance in experiments using machine learning," Papers 2306.03363, arXiv.org.
    11. Goller, Daniel & Lechner, Michael & Pongratz, Tamara & Wolff, Joachim, 2025. "Active labor market policies for the long-term unemployed: New evidence from causal machine learning," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Ganesh Karapakula, 2023. "Stable Probability Weighting: Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap," Papers 2301.05703, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    13. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Christian Hansen & Kengo Kato, 2018. "High-Dimensional Econometrics and Regularized GMM," Papers 1806.01888, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    14. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2026. "Estimating Causal Effects With Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 356-382, June.
    15. Daniel Goller, 2023. "Analysing a built-in advantage in asymmetric darts contests using causal machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 649-679, June.
    16. Black, Dan A. & Grogger, Jeffrey & Kirchmaier, Tom & Sanders, Koen, 2023. "Criminal charges, risk assessment and violent recidivism in cases of domestic abuse," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121374, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Franziska Zimmert & Michael Zimmert, 2024. "Part‐time subsidies and maternal reemployment: Evidence from a difference‐in‐differences analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1149-1171, September.
    18. Michael C Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2021. "Machine learning estimation of heterogeneous causal effects: Empirical Monte Carlo evidence," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(1), pages 134-161.
    19. Kleifgen, Eva & Lang, Julia, 2022. "Should I Train Or Should I Go? Estimating Treatment Effects of Retraining on Regional and Occupational Mobility," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264069, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Michael C Knaus, 2022. "Double machine learning-based programme evaluation under unconfoundedness [Econometric methods for program evaluation]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 602-627.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:istatr:v:93:y:2025:i:2:p:288-316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isiiinl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.