How do political steering instruments influence the integration of chemical recycling into plastic recycling networks? A case study for Germany

A steadily increasing plastic production requires the treatment of ever greater amounts of plastic waste. Plastic waste that is unsuitable for mechanical recycling is incinerated in Europe, generating large amounts of CO2. Chemical recycling of such plastic waste offers an alternative to reduce the climate change impact (CCI) of plastic waste treatment and contributes toward closing the plastic loop. This paper presents a strategic location optimization model designed to effectively integrate chemical recycling facilities into existing waste treatment networks. The model optimizes material flows for both operational costs and CCI and is extended by using a goal programming approach to balance both objectives. The study focuses on two significant waste streams: (1) lightweight packaging, which in Germany accounts for 59% of post‐consumer plastic waste, with 34% of it being unsuitable for mechanical recycling, and (2) automotive plastic waste, which as engineering plastics from the automotive sector presents a challenge for recycling due to its complex composition. Moreover, the study explores scenarios to evaluate political instruments and quantifies their impacts on the German plastic waste treatment network. It quantifies the impact of an increase of a legal national recycling rate and the extension of emission trading systems to the German waste sector as it was implemented in early 2024. Raising the recycling rate to 65% or introducing a CO2 emission fee of 45€/t CO2 could reduce the waste treatment network's CCI by up to 64% while increasing the circularity and decarbonization of plastics.