The Waste Footprint of French Households in 2020: A Comparison of Scenarios of Consumption Growth Using Input†Output Analysis

This study aims at quantifying and analyzing the waste footprint of French household consumption in 2020 with respect to different scenarios of economic growth. Three models are jointly used: (1) a multiregional unilateral input†output model extended to waste, to quantify waste generation from economic activities induced by household consumption; (2) a coefficient†based model dedicated to quantifying postconsumer waste as a function of household consumption; and (3) the New Econometric Model of Evaluation by Sectorial Interdependency and Supply (NEMESIS), a macroeconometric model used to elaborate different scenarios of growth in household consumption in the period 2008–2020. Three scenarios consider changes primarily in terms of household consumption volume, while one scenario additionally considers changes in the composition of consumption according to the past†30†year trend. First, this study suggests that if the trend in changes of composition is maintained, it will lead, by 2020, to a “relative†decoupling between French household consumption and waste footprint with respect to dry recyclables, mixed wastes, and organic wastes and to an “absolute†decoupling with respect to mineral wastes. Second, this study provides a mapping of the changes in French household waste footprints from 2008 to 2020 as a function of scenarios, with indications of where these changes would actually occur in the economy (waste from economic activities or postconsumer waste) and geographically (in France or abroad). In particular, for most of the scenarios considered, changes in French household consumption from 2008 to 2020 primarily induce changes in organic and mineral waste generation abroad rather than in France.