Structural Drivers of GHG Emissions in Sergipe and the Rest of Brazil: A Decomposition Analysis, 2011–2018

This paper investigates the structural drivers of changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in trade in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, between 2011 and 2018. Using Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), the study identifies the contributions of emission intensity, technological change, and shifts in final demand to sectoral emission trends. Emission data are sourced from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimating System (SEEG), and input‐output tables are adapted from Haddad et al. and Seinfra, covering 67 sectors across two regions: Sergipe and the rest of Brazil. The analysis reveals both similarities and divergences between Sergipe and the rest of Brazil. In Sergipe, reductions in emissions are primarily driven by technological changes in the sectors of livestock and agriculture, while gains in emission intensity were more modest and uneven across sectors. In contrast, the rest of Brazil shows broader improvements in intensity, particularly in industrial activities. Final demand effects contribute to emission increases in both regions, especially in livestock, agriculture, and public administration. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for regional production structures when designing climate policy. In Sergipe, the limited diffusion of cleaner technologies and the high carbon intensity of key sectors reveals the need for region‐specific policy interventions. By highlighting sectoral and regional asymmetries in the drivers of emissions, this study offers insights to inform more effective subnational climate strategies aligned with decarbonization goals.