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Urban Growth Predictions: Optimization of Urbanization Strategy for Risk Mitigation in Medium‐Sized Cities

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  • Dilşah Erkek
  • Ceren Yağci
  • Fatih İşcan

Abstract

The study aims to forecast future urban growth and comprehend potential risks, with a particular focus on the dynamic nature of urban growth in medium‐sized cities. By identifying factors affecting growth in urban areas, the SLEUTH model was utilized to analyze patterns of urban growth and associated changes in land use. Four scenarios were developed to anticipate urban development in Osmaniye, a medium‐sized Turkish city, using the SLEUTH model for the year 2039. Scenarios S.1 and S.4 focus on the impacts of public investment on urban growth, while S.2 and S.3 examine the effects of urbanization on rural areas. Scenario S.3 also explores diverting urban development from high‐risk seismic zones. S.1 poses the highest risk to agriculture (51% urbanization), while S.3 is the least threatening (37%). For forests, S.2 presents the highest risk (31%), but S.3 is the safest (25%). Overall, Scenario 3 provides the most effective approach for urbanization strategy, particularly for rural areas, protecting them from urbanization pressures and preserving geologically hazardous locations in Osmaniye. The study highlights how the SLEUTH model demonstrates the interaction between urban growth and spatial limitations, emphasizing the importance of understanding the consequences of urban growth for implementing effective zoning regulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilşah Erkek & Ceren Yağci & Fatih İşcan, 2025. "Urban Growth Predictions: Optimization of Urbanization Strategy for Risk Mitigation in Medium‐Sized Cities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:56:y:2025:i:4:n:e70054
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.70054
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