Author
Listed:
- Hasan Engin Duran
- Zeynep Elburz
- Burcu Değerli Çifçi
Abstract
The vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS‐2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000–2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS (“Box‐Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components”) model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the “Mediterranean Basin” are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.
Suggested Citation
Hasan Engin Duran & Zeynep Elburz & Burcu Değerli Çifçi, 2025.
"The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box‐Cox Transformed ARMA Process Trend Smoothing (BATS) Forecasting,"
Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), June.
Handle:
RePEc:bla:growch:v:56:y:2025:i:2:n:e70031
DOI: 10.1111/grow.70031
Download full text from publisher
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:56:y:2025:i:2:n:e70031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0017-4815 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.