Australia and the Path Not Taken: The Declining Independence and Influence of Middle Powers

Australian foreign policy has famously been distinguished by the search for ‘great and powerful friends’. However, Australia's relationship with its current notional protector and key ally—the United States—has generally had more costs than benefits and, I argue, has consequently not been in Australia's much‐invoked ‘national interest’. Examining this rather counter‐intuitive outcome sheds a revealing light on the challenges that face ‘middle powers’ as they try to navigate a path between their ‘great’ counterparts. Australia is especially illuminating as the great powers in question are the US and China. To understand why Australia has found itself an ‘entrapped’ ally, we need to examine the specific historical circumstances that have helped to create a distinctive ‘strategic culture’, one that imparts a degree of path dependence, shaping and constraining an ideational milieu that effectively defines what is judged to be an appropriate, even ‘realistic’ response to security challenges. In short, I argue that Australia demonstrates how and why the potential influence of middle powers is decreasing as they willingly forgo opportunities to play a more creative, constructive and independent role in the evolving international order.