Pivot to Asia, Europe or the Homeland? 18 Years of US Foreign Military Sales

Subsequent US administrations have shifted the focus of US foreign policy over the last decades. A pivot to Asia characterised President Obama's administrations while President Biden focused on Europe. President Trump's second administration emphasises homeland security and the Western hemisphere. Meanwhile, the Middle East continues to be an important focus of US foreign policy. But do these ‘pivots’ result in different weapon export patterns, one of the key resources of US foreign policy? The US defence industrial base produces the most advanced weapons in the world and they are in high demand thanks to their effectiveness. In this paper, we analyse all US foreign military sales notifications since 2008 based on a novel database. Our descriptive evidence does not show a ‘pivot to Asia’ during the Obama presidency while exports to Europe have increased substantially during the Biden presidency and Russia's war against Ukraine. The first Trump administration shows no clear shift towards Asia nor towards the homeland but in the second administration, first evidence suggests that FMS are declining while the US military is substantially increasing its demand from the US defence industrial base—consistent with a shift to the homeland. Three policy implications emerge. First, while strategies set the tone, the United States has historically reacted to actual needs as they emerge, a factor that US defence companies need to consider. Second, from the perspective of recipient countries of weapon sales, US ‘pivots’ need to be taken with a grain of salt. Finally, military planners, especially in Europe, need to prepare for less dependence on the US military industrial base given the general uncertainty and the much more forceful shift in US policy during the current administration compared to previous ‘pivots’.