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The Bankruptcy System's Chapter 22 Recidivism Problem: How Serious is It?

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  • Edward I. Altman
  • Ben Branch

Abstract

This paper is adapted from the keynote address from the Eastern Finance Association's 2014 meeting in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania. We highlight a recidivism problem: about 15% of debtors who emerge as continuing entities under Chapter 11, or are acquired as part of the bankruptcy process, ultimately file for bankruptcy protection again (18.25% when considering only those firms which emerge as a continuing, independent entity). We argue that the “Chapter 22” issue should not be dismissed by the bankruptcy community just because no interested party objects during the confirmation hearing. Applying the Z”-Score model to a large sample of Chapter 11 cases reveals highly different and significant expected survival profiles at emergence. Credible distress prediction techniques can effectively predict the future success of firms emerging from bankruptcy and be used by the bankruptcy court to assess the feasibility of the reorganization plan, a requirement mandated by the Bankruptcy Code. Branch reviews, discusses, and critiques in this follow-up article to Altman's original thesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward I. Altman & Ben Branch, 2015. "The Bankruptcy System's Chapter 22 Recidivism Problem: How Serious is It?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:50:y:2015:i:1:p:1-26
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/fire.12058
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    Cited by:

    1. Wonik Choi & Jongha Lim, 2022. "Did they live happily ever after? The fate of restructured firms after hedge fund activism," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 925-947, November.
    2. Ayadi, Rim & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled, 2021. "Survival of reorganized firms in France," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Luca Sensini, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Financially Distressed Italian Companies," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(10), pages 75-85, October.
    4. Abd Halim Ahmad & Nur Adiana Hiau Abdullah & Kamarun Nisham Taufil Mohd, 2016. "Market reactions to financial distress announcements: Does the market react differently to different outcomes?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 601-608.
    5. Qunfeng LIAO & Seyed MEHDIAN, 2016. "Measuring Financial Distress And Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Index Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 33-51, June.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 2018. "Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, August.

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