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Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?

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  • Oya Celasun
  • R. Gaston Gelos
  • Alessandro Prati

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> Persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy-makers to recover from inflationary episodes without substantial output losses. Using survey data from eleven disinflation episodes, we can assess whether the more or less sluggish decline of inflation rates towards lower target levels is related to backward-looking pricing behavior or to imperfect credibility of the stabilization efforts. We find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. Second, we find that an improvement in various measures of fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This evidence suggests that, when attempting to stabilize inflation, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility. — Oya Celasun, R. Gaston Gelos and Alessandro Prati

Suggested Citation

  • Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 441-481, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:19:y:2004:i:40:p:441-481
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2004.00129.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gelos, Gaston & Ustyugova, Yulia, 2017. "Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-47.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia. An Event Study Approach," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    3. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2004. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets; A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/208, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:11:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Different Types of Foreign Exchange Intervention: An Event Study Approach," Borradores de Economia 784, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Uruguay; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/7, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pýnar Özlü, 2011. "Monetary policy communication under inflation targeting: Do words speak louder than actions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1128, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    9. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    10. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    11. Joerg Bibow, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Tax-Push Inflation in Germany and in the Euro Area: A Symptom of Macroeconomic Mismanagement?," IMK Studies 01-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies; The Case of Mauritius," IMF Working Papers 05/172, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2006. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey's IMF-Supported Program," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(11), pages 1-8.
    14. Luiz De Mello & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1671-1690, December.

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