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Reflections on Econometric Methodology

  • Phillips, P C B

General issues about the methodology of empirical econometric research are discussed. It is argued that the most successful paradigms for applied work are the ones that have a capacity to survive and to evolve into more useful forms as these are needed. Paradigms that embrace progressive modeling principles, such as those espoused by David Hendry, seem most amenable to this criterion. It is also argued that econometric theory has a large role to play in helping us to understand the strengths and the weaknesses of a methodology and to codify what its prescriptions entail. The time series methodology of David Hendry is considered in some detail. It is shown that the Hendry methodology comes remarkable close to achieving an optimal inference procedure for long run structural relationships even though it is conducted on a single equation basis. The findings indicate that the methodology may be improved further to achieve results that are equivalent to optimal estimation.

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 64 (1988)
Issue (Month): 187 (December)
Pages: 344-59

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:187:p:344-59
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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier.
  2. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
  3. Phillips, Peter C B & Park, Joon Y, 1988. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1065-83, September.
  4. repec:oup:restud:v:47:y:1980:i:1:p:21-45 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  6. E. Ray Canterbery, 1984. "Introduction," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(1), pages 4-6, October.
  7. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  8. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
  9. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  10. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Hendry, David F, 1985. "Monetary Economic Myth and Econometric Reality," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 72-84, Spring.
  12. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 845R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1988.
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  15. Truman F. Bewley, 1988. "Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 868, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  17. Hall, Anthony David & Pagan, Adrian Rodney, 1981. "The LIML and Related Estimators of an Equation with Moving Average Disturbances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 719-30, October.
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