IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v64y2026i2p395-408.html

Tariffs, taxes and wages in the age of artificial intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • John Gilbert
  • Onur A. Koska
  • Reza Oladi

Abstract

We formulate a model of an open economy with three final goods sectors, one of which uses a continuum of tasks as inputs. Skilled labor or artificial intelligence (AI), which is produced using skilled labor and capital, can conduct these tasks. We explore the effects of technical progress in AI, showing how AI competes with skilled labor in tasks and the consequences for wage inequality and the skill premium. We consider the effectiveness of trade tariffs and a direct AI tax to counter negative impacts of advancements in AI technology on the range of tasks performed by skilled labor.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gilbert & Onur A. Koska & Reza Oladi, 2026. "Tariffs, taxes and wages in the age of artificial intelligence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 64(2), pages 395-408, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:395-408
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70048
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecin.70048?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Cords & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Technological unemployment revisited: automation in a search and matching framework [The future of work: meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 115-135.
    2. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2025. "Generative AI at Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 889-942.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    4. repec:bla:econom:v:54:y:1987:i:214:p:173-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Arnaud Costinot & Iván Werning, 2023. "Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2261-2291.
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale & Andrea Manera, 2024. "The Economic Impacts and the Regulation of AI: A Review of the Academic Literature and Policy Actions," IMF Working Papers 2024/065, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Lehr, Nils H. & Restrepo, Pascual, 2026. "The price of intelligence: How should socially-minded firms price and deploy AI?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. repec:bla:econom:v:50:y:1983:i:197:p:71-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bloom, David E. & Prettner, Klaus & Saadaoui, Jamel & Veruete, Mario, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and the skill premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Joao Guerreiro & Sergio Rebelo & Pedro Teles, 2022. "Should Robots Be Taxed?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 279-311.
    11. Freund, Caroline & Mattoo, Aaditya & Mulabdic, Alen & Ruta, Michele, 2024. "Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    13. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    15. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    16. Uwe Thuemmel, 2023. "Optimal Taxation of Robots," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 1154-1190.
    17. Edward Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2021. "Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(12), pages 2195-2217, December.
    18. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2019. "How can robots affect wage inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 161-169.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bloom, David E. & Prettner, Klaus & Saadaoui, Jamel & Veruete, Mario, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and the skill premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Zhang, Jingting & Shi, Zhiru, 2025. "Suppress or let go? The time-varying roles of automation towards labor market," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 158-174.
    3. Pi, Jiancai & Fan, Yanwei, 2021. "The impact of robots on equilibrium unemployment of unionized workers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 663-675.
    4. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    5. Kim, Jae-Yoon & Lee, Dongwoo, 2024. "Pension systems revisited in the age of automation and an aging economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2024. "Government size and automation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 780-807, June.
    7. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    8. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.
    9. Ana Abeliansky & Klaus Prettner & Ernesto Rodríguez Crespo, 2024. "Climate change and automation: the emission effects of robot adoption," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp370, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Arthur JACOBS & Freddy HEYLEN, 2025. "Demographic change, secular stagnation, and inequality: automation as a blessing?," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(4), pages 508-548, December.
    11. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Population growth and automation density: theory and cross-country evidence," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 315, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    12. Cheng, Can & Luo, Jiayu & Zhu, Chun & Zhang, Shangfeng, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and the skill premium: A numerical analysis of theoretical models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Nakatani, Ryota & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2026. "Optimal Taxation in the Automation Era," MPRA Paper 128480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Maeda, Daiki & Morimoto, Takaaki & Motoyama, Takumi & Saito, Yuki, 2025. "Effects of a capital-use tax and automation subsidy in a model of innovation and automation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    15. Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Stagnant wages in the face of rising labor productivity: The potential role of industrial robots," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    16. Franziska Brall & Ramona Schmid, 2023. "Automation, robots and wage inequality in Germany: A decomposition analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 37(1), pages 33-95, March.
    17. Hideki Nakamura & Joseph Zeira, 2024. "Automation and unemployment: help is on the way," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 215-250, June.
    18. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Beulmann, Matthias & Prettner, Klaus, 2024. "Are they coming for us? Industrial robots and the mental health of workers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    19. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2024. "Frictions and the diffusion of automation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(2), pages 148-170, March.
    20. Wang, Linhui & Cao, Zhanglu & Dong, Zhiqing, 2023. "Are artificial intelligence dividends evenly distributed between profits and wages? Evidence from the private enterprise survey data in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 342-356.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:395-408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.