TVET reform in fragile states: A policy window for hope in Lebanon's skills crisis

Motivation Youth unemployment is a persistent challenge in fragile states, where economic collapse, governance failures, and skills mismatches undermine young people's pathways to employment. In Lebanon, prolonged political instability, economic crisis, and large‐scale outward migration have severely weakened labour‐market absorption, while the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) system has struggled to respond effectively. Recent economic pressures, clearly documented skills shortages, and renewed political momentum have converged to make this a prime moment for placing TVET reform firmly on the national education policy agenda. Purpose This study aims to examine why TVET reform should be prioritized on Lebanon's education policy agenda. It asks how Kingdon's multiple streams framework can explain the emergence of a policy window for TVET reform in a fragile state setting, and what agenda‐setting conditions enable TVET to be positioned as a strategic policy response to youth unemployment and skills mismatches. Approach and Methods The study adopts a qualitative policy analysis approach using Kingdon's multiple streams framework (Kingdon, 1995). It draws on secondary data, including national labour force surveys, international skills anticipation studies, government reports, policy documents, and relevant academic and grey literature. The analysis systematically maps evidence onto the problem, policy, and politics streams to assess their convergence and identify the presence of a policy window for TVET reform. Findings The findings indicate a clear alignment of the three streams. Rising youth unemployment, skills shortages, and misalignment between TVET provision and labour‐market needs define the problem stream. Established but underimplemented reform proposals and strong theoretical support for TVET investment characterize the policy stream. Recent political stabilization and renewed international engagement signal a favourable politics stream. Together, these conditions create a credible policy window for elevating TVET reform on the national agenda. Policy Implications Policy‐makers should act decisively to leverage this policy window by prioritizing TVET reform through improved cross‐sector governance, curriculum modernization aligned with labour‐market needs, strengthened quality assurance, and sustainable public–private partnerships. The study offers transferable lessons for other fragile and conflict‐affected states seeking to align skill development with economic recovery.