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Who Fears Job Losses From US Tariff Hikes? Evidence From Cambodia

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  • Kiyoyasu Tanaka
  • Yasushi Ueki

Abstract

In April 2025, the US introduced sharply higher tariff rates under a new “reciprocal tariff” system, raising serious concerns about potential employment impacts on export‐oriented industries in developing countries. This paper examines Cambodian public perceptions of the tariff hikes using a phone‐based survey of 600 households conducted between September and October 2025. We find that 58.5% of respondents disagreed with the statement that the tariff increases negatively affect their jobs, indicating limited perceived employment risk, while 25.9% agreed. Regression analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity across income groups: low‐income respondents employed in export industries are significantly more likely to perceive negative job impacts, whereas middle‐ and higher‐income respondents show no meaningful direct‐exposure effects. Indirect exposure reduces perceived job risks among higher‐income groups, reflecting their greater job stability and financial resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyoyasu Tanaka & Yasushi Ueki, 2026. "Who Fears Job Losses From US Tariff Hikes? Evidence From Cambodia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 64(2), pages 171-186, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:171-186
    DOI: 10.1111/deve.70027
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