IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/deveco/v64y2026i2p171-186.html

Who Fears Job Losses From US Tariff Hikes? Evidence From Cambodia

Author

Listed:
  • Kiyoyasu Tanaka
  • Yasushi Ueki

Abstract

In April 2025, the US introduced sharply higher tariff rates under a new “reciprocal tariff” system, raising serious concerns about potential employment impacts on export‐oriented industries in developing countries. This paper examines Cambodian public perceptions of the tariff hikes using a phone‐based survey of 600 households conducted between September and October 2025. We find that 58.5% of respondents disagreed with the statement that the tariff increases negatively affect their jobs, indicating limited perceived employment risk, while 25.9% agreed. Regression analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity across income groups: low‐income respondents employed in export industries are significantly more likely to perceive negative job impacts, whereas middle‐ and higher‐income respondents show no meaningful direct‐exposure effects. Indirect exposure reduces perceived job risks among higher‐income groups, reflecting their greater job stability and financial resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyoyasu Tanaka & Yasushi Ueki, 2026. "Who Fears Job Losses From US Tariff Hikes? Evidence From Cambodia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 64(2), pages 171-186, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:171-186
    DOI: 10.1111/deve.70027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70027
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/deve.70027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2022. "Understanding of Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 17301, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2025. "Measuring foreign exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Jeong, Dahyeon & Aggarwal, Shilpa & Robinson, Jonathan & Kumar, Naresh & Spearot, Alan & Park, David Sungho, 2023. "Exhaustive or exhausting? Evidence on respondent fatigue in long surveys," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Dias da Silva, António & Rusinova, Desislava & Weißler, Marco, 2025. "Consumption effects of job loss expectations—New evidence for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    5. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
    6. Scheve, Kenneth F. & Slaughter, Matthew J., 2001. "What determines individual trade-policy preferences?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 267-292, August.
    7. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2006. "Learning to Love Globalization: Education and Individual Attitudes Toward International Trade," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 469-498, April.
    8. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    9. Margalit, Yotam, 2011. "Costly Jobs: Trade-related Layoffs, Government Compensation, and Voting in U.S. Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 166-188, February.
    10. Eiichi Tomiura & Banri Ito & Hiroshi Mukunoki & Ryuhei Wakasugi, 2016. "Individual Characteristics, Behavioral Biases, and Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence from a Survey in Japan," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1081-1095, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2026. "Introduction to the Special Issue on “Trump 2.0 and the Global Economy”," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 64(2), pages 119-120, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cevat G. Aksoy & Sergei Guriev & Daniel S. Treisman, 2018. "Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide," NBER Working Papers 25062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:osf:socarx:256eh_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Aleksandra Sojka & Jorge Diaz-Lanchas & Federico Steinberg, 2019. "The Politicization of Transatlantic Trade in Europe: Explaining Inconsistent Preferences Regarding Free Trade and the TTIP," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2019-09, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Osman S Kiratli, 2023. "Loving globalization: High-growth enterprises and public opinion on globalization in Europe," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(2), pages 286-306, June.
    5. Schaffer, Lena Maria & Spilker, Gabriele, 2013. "Ego- vs. Sociotropic: Using Survey Experiments to Understand Individuals’ Trade Preferences," Papers 620, World Trade Institute.
    6. Barbara Dluhosch & Daniel Horgos, 2013. "Trading Up the Happiness Ladder," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 973-990, September.
    7. Tomiura, Eiichi & Ito, Banri & Mukunoki, Hiroshi & Wakasugi, Ryuhei, 2021. "Individual characteristics and the demand for reciprocity in trade liberalization: Evidence from a survey in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Barbara Dluhosch, 2021. "The role of perceptions about trade and inequality in the backlash against globalization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Sean D. Ehrlich & Christopher Gahagan, 2023. "The Multisided Threat to Free Trade: Protectionism and Fair Trade During Increasing Populism," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 223-236.
    10. Cotofan, Maria & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Adapting or compounding? The effects of recurring labour shocks on stated and revealed preferences for redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121297, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Nathaniel P.S. Cook & Robert L. Underwood, 2012. "Attitudes Toward Economic Globalization: Does Knowledge Matter?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Erling Barth & Henning Finseraas & Anders Kjelsrud & Karl O. Moene, 2021. "Does the Rise of China Lead to the Fall of European Welfare States?," Working Papers 202007, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo Business School.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Globalization and nationalism: Retrospect and prospect," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 675-690, October.
    14. Judith L. Goldstein & Margaret E. Peters, 2014. "Nativism or Economic Threat: Attitudes Toward Immigrants During the Great Recession," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 376-401, May.
    15. Gabriel Felbermayr & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "Individual preferences on trade liberalization: evidence from a Japanese household survey," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 305-330, February.
    16. Haas, Levi & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R., 2019. "International Trade: Smarten up to talk the talk," MPRA Paper 99096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Harms, Philipp & Steiner, Nils, 2019. "The China Shock and the Nationalist Backlash against Globalization: Attitudinal Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203506, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Eiichi Tomiura & Banri Ito & Hiroshi Mukunoki & Ryuhei Wakasugi, 2016. "Individual Characteristics, Behavioral Biases, and Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence from a Survey in Japan," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1081-1095, November.
    19. Chun-Fang Chiang & Jason M. Kuo & Megumi Naoi & Jin-Tan Liu, 2020. "What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News? Emulation, Backlash, and Public Support for Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 27497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Chiara Franco & Giovanni Marin & Filomena Pietrovito, 2023. "Exposure to FDI and attitudes towards multinational enterprises: Do M&A matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1648-1669, June.
    21. Ito, Banri & Tanaka, Ayumu & Jinji, Naoto, 2023. "Why do people oppose foreign acquisitions? Evidence from Japanese individual-level data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:171-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.