Greening the Gulf? Renewables, Fossil Capitalism and the ‘East–East’ Axis of World Energy

This article examines the place of the Gulf Cooperation Council states in the global energy transition, with a focus on the recent and rapid expansion of renewable energy in the region. It argues that much like at the global scale, the energy transition in the Gulf is an additive process, one that superimposes renewable energy on growing fossil fuel production. Far from being in tension with hydrocarbons, renewables in the Gulf are explicitly conceived as part of a strategy to sustain and enhance the production (and export) of oil and gas. The article situates these dynamics within broader shifts currently underway in the world system, notably the rise of major centres of capital accumulation in China and East Asia alongside a relative decline of American global power. A key feature of this transformation is the emergence of an ‘East–East’ energy circuit linking the Middle East and China/East Asia, which now encompasses fossil fuels, petrochemicals and (increasingly) renewables. This axis is forging new interdependencies between Middle East and East Asian capitalisms, reflected not only in trade and investment flows but also in ownership patterns across the energy sector. This analysis offers a critical lens on the political economy of the so‐called ‘green transition’, highlighting the strategic centrality of the Gulf in determining future pathways for global energy and climate policy.