IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v33y2025i2p209-251.html

Industrial Robot Adoption, Human Capital, and Global Value Chain Upgrading: Insights from China

Author

Listed:
  • Tianding Zhang
  • Sumei Gan

Abstract

Concerns have been raised that the adoption of industrial robots in developed economies may hinder industrialization and displace jobs in emerging economies. However, the growing use of robots in emerging economies may help mitigate these negative effects. This study, drawing on a theoretical model and empirical analysis, reveals that the adoption of robots in China, a developing country, significantly enhanced firms' positions in global value chains (GVCs). A detailed analysis reveals that markups and the structure of intermediate inputs were key mechanisms. The study also found that improvements in human capital enhanced the efficiency of robots, enabling firms to use them more effectively, which further strengthened the firms' position in GVCs. The positive impact of the adoption of robots on GVC upgrading was more pronounced in non‐resource‐based cities and cities with high labor costs. Furthermore, the study highlights that robot adoption in medium‐ and high‐tech industries had a greater impact on GVC upgrading. In conclusion, this study suggests that robot adoption in emerging economies can enhance their position in GVCs, with human capital playing a crucial role.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianding Zhang & Sumei Gan, 2025. "Industrial Robot Adoption, Human Capital, and Global Value Chain Upgrading: Insights from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 33(2), pages 209-251, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:33:y:2025:i:2:p:209-251
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12575
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12575
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cwe.12575?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    3. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    4. Lordan, Grace & Neumark, David, 2018. "People versus machines: The impact of minimum wages on automatable jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 40-53.
    5. Fan, Haichao & Hu, Yichuan & Tang, Lixin, 2021. "Labor costs and the adoption of robots in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 608-631.
    6. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2016. "The connection between imported intermediate inputs and exports: Evidence from Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 86-101.
    7. Korinek, Anton & Stiglitz, Joseph, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence, Globalization, and Strategies for Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 15772, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "The wrong kind of AI? Artificial intelligence and the future of labour demand," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 25-35.
    9. Lianying Hong & Xujun Liu & Huiwen Zhan & Feng Han, 2022. "Use of industrial robots and Chinese enterprises’ export quality upgrading: Evidence from China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 860-875, August.
    10. Sotiris Blanas & Gino Gancia & Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, 2019. "Who is afraid of machines?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(100), pages 627-690.
    11. vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Labor market polarization, the decline of routine work, and technological change: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 62-80.
    12. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity (DOI:10.111/j.1467-937x.2007.00463.x)," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 985-985.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    14. Thanh Le & Huong Quynh Nguyen & Mai Vu, 2024. "Robot revolution and human capital accumulation: implications for growth and labour income," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 89-126, January.
    15. Lamei Wu & Guifu Chen & Shuijun Peng, 2021. "Human Capital Expansion and Global Value Chain Upgrading: Firm‐level Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(5), pages 28-56, September.
    16. Osea Giuntella & Yi Lu & Tianyi Wang, 2025. "How do Workers Adjust to Robots? Evidence from China," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(666), pages 637-652.
    17. Erik Brynjolfsson & Xiang Hui & Meng Liu, 2019. "Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? Evidence from a Large Digital Platform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5449-5460, December.
    18. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
    19. Hendricks, Lutz, 2000. "Equipment investment and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 335-364, April.
    20. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    21. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    22. Remi Jedwab & Paul Romer & Asif M. Islam & Roberto Samaniego, 2023. "Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 191-223, July.
    23. Lionel Fontagné & Ariell Reshef & Gianluca Santoni & Giulio Vannelli, 2024. "Automation, global value chains and functional specialization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 662-691, May.
    24. Bo Meng & Ming Ye & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2020. "Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(5), pages 988-1016, October.
    25. Timothy J. Sturgeon & Momoko Kawakami, 2011. "Global value chains in the electronics industry: characteristics, crisis, and upgrading opportunities for firms from developing countries," International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2/3), pages 120-147.
    26. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2018. "Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 130-144.
    27. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    28. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina & Yu, Zhihong, 2021. "Growing like China: Firm performance and global production line position," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    29. Matthias Breuer & Ed Dehaan, 2024. "Using and Interpreting Fixed Effects Models," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 62(4), pages 1183-1226, September.
    30. Ana Margarida Fernandes & Hiau Looi Kee & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Determinants of Global Value Chain Participation: Cross-Country Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 329-360.
    31. Li, Xing & Zhou, Wei & Hou, Jiani, 2021. "Research on the impact of OFDI on the home country's global value chain upgrading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    32. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    33. Enrique Martínez‐Galán & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2019. "Global value chains and inward foreign direct investment in the 2000s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 175-196, January.
    34. DeStefano, Timothy & Timmis, Jonathan, 2024. "Robots and export quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    35. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2009. "Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 66-82, February.
    36. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    37. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Harald Fadinger & Gino Gancia, 2024. "Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3428-3444.
    38. Yi Che & Lei Zhang, 2018. "Human Capital, Technology Adoption and Firm Performance: Impacts of China's Higher Education Expansion in the Late 1990s," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(614), pages 2282-2320, September.
    39. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    40. Gary S. Becker, 1962. "Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(5), pages 1-9.
    41. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    42. Xu, Bin, 2010. "The sophistication of exports: Is China special?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 482-493, September.
    43. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2017. "On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 12549, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    44. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    45. Zhang, Xiaobei & Wang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    46. Pol Antràs & Alonso de Gortari, 2020. "On the Geography of Global Value Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1553-1598, July.
    47. Ballestar, María Teresa & García-Lazaro, Aida & Sainz, Jorge & Sanz, Ismael, 2022. "Why is your company not robotic? The technology and human capital needed by firms to become robotic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 328-343.
    48. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    49. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Demographics and Automation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 1-44.
    50. Yi Lu Jr. & Linhui Yu Jr., 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Markup Dispersion: Evidence from China's WTO Accession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 221-253, October.
    51. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    52. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    53. Chen, Yangyang & Ofosu, Emmanuel & Veeraraghavan, Madhu & Zolotoy, Leon, 2023. "Does CEO overconfidence affect workplace safety?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    54. Xiaosong Wang & Zhexi Liu & Yue Lv & Chunming Zhao, 2019. "Trade Barriers and Participation in the Global Value Chain: An Empirical Study Based on Anti‐dumping toward China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(2), pages 86-106, March.
    55. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    56. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Jan De Loecker & Frederic Warzynski, 2012. "Markups and Firm-Level Export Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2437-2471, October.
    58. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    59. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cao, Yuanyuan & Chen, Shaojian & Tang, Heyan, 2025. "Robot adoption and firm export: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Pang, Suqin & Li, Zhaohua & Wang, Yong, 2024. "Digital technology and domestic value-added ratio in export: Evidence from China's pilot zones for integrating informatization and industrialization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 424-439.
    3. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.
    4. Zhengwen Liu & Hong Ma, 2021. "Input Trade Liberalization And Markup Distribution: Evidence From China," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 344-360, January.
    5. Wang, Weilong & Wang, Jianlong & Ye, Huiying & Wu, Haitao, 2024. "Polluted air, smarter factories? China's robot imports shed light on a potential link," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Schneider, Florian, 2024. "Do robots boost productivity? A quantitative meta-study," MPRA Paper 123392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Qiao, Gang & Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Lihua, 2025. "Higher education expansion and the adoption of robots in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Dai, Hangrui & Yang, Ronghai & Cao, Rongguang & Yin, Lei, 2024. "Does the application of industrial robots promote export green transformation? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing enterprises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    9. Xunyong Xiang & Feixiang Chen & Chun†Yu Ho & Wen Yue, 2017. "Heterogeneous effects of trade liberalisation on firm†level markups: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(8), pages 1667-1686, August.
    10. Li, Weiqing, 2025. "The impact of robot adoption on quality of export products: Evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Zhang, Yi & Wang, Ting & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Beyond the modern productivity paradox: The effect of robotics technology on firm-level total factor productivity in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Dai, Jiawu & Li, Juan & Zhang, Qiong, 2026. "Higher education expansion and labor market distortions: Micro evidence and possible mechanisms," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Dai, Xiaoyong & Sun, Zao & Liu, Hang, 2018. "Disentangling the effects of endogenous export and innovation on the performance of Chinese manufacturing firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 42-58.
    15. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Lu, Yi & Luo, Xuan & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "Foreign direct investment and industrial agglomeration: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 610-639.
    16. Du, Yan & Yan, Jie & Cao, Fangzhou & Li, Yifei & Zhou, Mao, 2023. "Higher education expansion and domestic value added in exports: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Mao, Qilin & Shi, Buchao, 2025. "Ordinary exports or processing exports? The role of industrial robots on the choice of export modes," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Zhang, Hongsheng & Chen, Ziyi & Wei, Yueling, 2025. "Robot adoption and export sophistication: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Xinheng Liu & Ziyuan Pan & Dongli Fang, 2023. "Agglomeration, resource reallocation and domestic value‐added ratio in exports," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 182-213, March.
    20. Stiebale, Joel & Suedekum, Jens & Woessner, Nicole, 2024. "Robots and the rise of European superstar firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:33:y:2025:i:2:p:209-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.