The Multifaceted Impact of Education on Fertility: Unpacking the “BASIC” Effects in China

Research is increasingly showing that the impact of education on fertility can result in various and sometimes conflicting outcomes. Using data from the China General Social Survey, this study investigates this issue by exploring five channels (the five “BASIC” effects – base, ambition, spouse, income, and concept effects) through which education might influence different fertility behaviors. Using the number of Confucian temples in a region as an instrumental variable for education and employing the two‐stage least squares estimation, the results indicate that after taking into account the BASIC effects, the impact of education on actual fertility behavior – both the number of children and the decision to have children – becomes insignificant. However, the negative influence of education on fertility intentions persists. This suggests that, although an increase in the level of education may reduce people's desire to have children, the actual fertility behavior can be influenced more by factors such as individual work status (the base effect) and personal expectations (the ambition effect). These findings provide new insights to assist China to optimize its population policy further, helping policymakers to understand better how education affects fertility choices and to formulate more precise population development strategies.