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Farmers’ share of the consumer food dollar in Canada: What input‐output data from 1997–2021 show us

Author

Listed:
  • Solomon Aklilu
  • Flora Guangzhi Cai
  • Deepananda Herath
  • Jill Smilestone
  • Laura Stortz

Abstract

This article uses Canadian input–output data from 1997–2021 to explore the consumer food dollar in terms of its distribution between farmers (i.e., farm share) and post‐farm gate industries. We have adopted the method developed by Canning (2011), which is based on a type one Input‐Output multiplier model. The overall farm share (19.4% in 1997–18.6% in 2021); the food at home farm share (23.7% in 1997–22.8% in 2021) and the food away from home farm share (10.1% in 1997–9.6% in 2021) did not fluctuate widely, suggesting a fairly fixed distribution between farmers and post‐farm gate industries. The overall farm share changed the most between 2019 and 2020 due to changing consumer behavior during the pandemic (COVID‐19). The time series econometric analysis on farm shares and price indices for the agri‐food value chain shows mild to significant associations among them. Given that, on average, 83% of every dollar Canadians spend on food goes to post‐farm gate sectors, it may be insightful to study post‐farm gate industries in greater detail in order to better understand the drivers behind recent food price inflation. Cet article utilise les données canadiennes d'entrées‐sorties de 1997 à 2021 pour analyser la répartition du dollar alimentaire consommateur entre les agriculteurs (part agricole) et les industries situées après la ferme. Nous avons adopté la méthode développée par Canning (2011), fondée sur un modèle multiplicateur d'entrées‐sorties de type un. La part agricole globale (de 19,4 % en 1997 à 18,6 % en 2021), la part agricole des aliments consommés à domicile (de 23,7 % en 1997 à 22,8 % en 2021) et celle des aliments consommés à l'extérieur (de 10,1 % en 1997 à 9,6 % en 2021) ont peu varié, ce qui suggère une répartition relativement stable entre les agriculteurs et les industries post‐ferme. La variation la plus marquée de la part agricole globale s'est produite entre 2019 et 2020, en raison du changement de comportement des consommateurs pendant la pandémie de COVID‐19. L'analyse économétrique en série chronologique portant sur les parts agricoles et les indices de prix dans la chaîne de valeur agroalimentaire montre des associations faibles à significatives entre ces variables. Étant donné qu'environ 83 cents de chaque dollar dépensé par les Canadiens pour l'alimentation vont aux secteurs situés après la ferme, il serait pertinent d’étudier ces industries plus en détail pour mieux comprendre les facteurs à l'origine de la récente inflation des prix alimentaires.

Suggested Citation

  • Solomon Aklilu & Flora Guangzhi Cai & Deepananda Herath & Jill Smilestone & Laura Stortz, 2025. "Farmers’ share of the consumer food dollar in Canada: What input‐output data from 1997–2021 show us," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 73(4), pages 397-421, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:73:y:2025:i:4:p:397-421
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.70000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. José G. Nuño‐Ledesma & Jill E. Hobbs & Timothy J. Richards, 2025. "Introduction to the special issue on global dynamics, food markets and the determinants of Canadian food price inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 73(4), pages 335-338, December.

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