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Using a surrogate marker for early testing of a treatment effect

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  • Layla Parast
  • Tianxi Cai
  • Lu Tian

Abstract

The development of methods to identify, validate, and use surrogate markers to test for a treatment effect has been an area of intense research interest given the potential for valid surrogate markers to reduce the required costs and follow‐up times of future studies. Several quantities and procedures have been proposed to assess the utility of a surrogate marker. However, few methods have been proposed to address how one might use the surrogate marker information to test for a treatment effect at an earlier time point, especially in settings where the primary outcome and the surrogate marker are subject to censoring. In this paper, we propose a novel test statistic to test for a treatment effect using surrogate marker information measured prior to the end of the study in a time‐to‐event outcome setting. We propose a robust nonparametric estimation procedure and propose inference procedures. In addition, we evaluate the power for the design of a future study based on surrogate marker information. We illustrate the proposed procedure and relative power of the proposed test compared to a test performed at the end of the study using simulation studies and an application to data from the Diabetes Prevention Program.

Suggested Citation

  • Layla Parast & Tianxi Cai & Lu Tian, 2019. "Using a surrogate marker for early testing of a treatment effect," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1253-1263, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:biomet:v:75:y:2019:i:4:p:1253-1263
    DOI: 10.1111/biom.13067
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